Risky Business: Understanding How Risk is a Factor in Operational Activity
Life is a gamble, they say. When it comes to the Intelligence Community, risk is a factor in evaluating whether an operational activity is worthwhile or a no-go.
From the outside looking in, most people may think that the actions performed by an intelligence agency and their employees is a do-or-die adrenaline rush to the finish line. Not to burst your James Bond-inspired bubble, but I can tell you from experience that this is not the case. At least, not always.
Intelligence collection requires actions on the part of the intelligence community. This includes but is not limited to:
• Meeting with individuals for the purpose of an assessment or a potential recruitment,
• Setting up an electronic monitoring site, and
• Loading or unloading of a dead letter box.
Every action taken by an intelligence organization could be either detrimental or beneficial in the long run. Thus, any operational activity must be assessed for risk. Whether this is a formal assessment or an informal one, all risks involve three components: Scenario / Situation, Likelihood, and Impact.
Operational activity needs to be assessed for potential gain, including the potential risks to the various components of that operation. These components may include personnel, objectives, reputation of the organization or agency, the government, and the country. Any factor that can be articulated must be considered for potential risk.
Here’s a simplified example, but one that would affect any country’s HUMINT intelligence agency or organization: an individual is identified who can provide classified, unparalleled and unique information on a national security investigation. This could include counter-terrorism investigations, foreign interference, or espionage investigations; but for the sake of simplicity, let’s stick with a counter-terrorism investigation.
Scenario / Situation
For the assessment and potential recruitment of this individual to go forward, many factors must be taken into consideration. This includes the safety of the individuals involved. Specifically, will the physical safety of the Intelligence Officer (IO) and any other personnel of the organization be at risk? If the individual identified for potential recruitment lives in a country where the geopolitical stability is questionable or the crime rate poses a threat to the safety of the IO and staff providing support to the operation, then the specific risks to health and safety need to be considered. The potential recruit’s health and safety are also taken into consideration. Specifically, what would be the safest way for all involved to approach this individual without jeopardizing anyone’s health and safety?
Likelihood
Once all factors are identified, then the assessment of the likelihood of each scenario occurring must be weighed. For example, a scenario exists that the potential recruitment operation could be compromised because the individual for recruitment is a relative of a known terrorist entity. However, the likelihood of this compromise is considered low, because the relative is estranged from the terrorist entity and has been identified as publicly denouncing all terrorist acts as inhuman and unnecessary. Additionally, there are methods and techniques in place to assure that the meeting for assessment and recruitment are conducted with minimal-to-no-chance of others becoming aware.
Impact
So now that the scenario and likelihood of the scenario have been articulated, what is the potential impact to the organization, government or country should it all come to fruition?
This consideration is also required to make an objective assessment of the risk surrounding the operation. Is the organization acting in the best interest of its own mandate? Is it within what is considered “normal activity” for an intelligence agency to conduct this operation?
• If the answers to these questions are positive—the impact on the operation being identified may be low.
• If the answers are negative, then the impact could be seen as being greater because the reputation of the intelligence organization, the government and the country could be considered at risk.
By assessing the risk and identifying the potential impact, risk assessments provide a roadmap to success in operational activities.
This is just one quick example of how risk is assessed in relation to operational activities for the intelligence community. So, the next time you see your favourite movie or Netflix series spy performing acts of daring, you might want to ask what the risk assessment for this operation would have looked like in regards to scenario, likelihood and impact.
